Fantasy Boiz · Week 1
Fantasy Boiz — Week 1
Holy shit, what a week one.
Every year we open with offenses looking like they don't know how to play football. Not this time. The league averaged 137.64 a team, up 10 points on the 2022–25 average. And sitting on top of it all: Salmaan's 193.58. That's not just the high score this week, it's the ninth highest total in league history and the second-biggest opening week anybody has ever put up (Bhuh's 196.05 😂). It was straight bangers from the 10am slate straight through the evening and had the added bonus of the U.S. Open running concurrently.
The $10
Salmaan, 193.58, high scorer. Jon Tsao, 107.68, low scorer. First week of the season and Tsao has Belling writing checks 😂. Anyone else curious what type of financial arrangement the two of them made?
Wonder if we'll see a trend with new competitors to the league. Ahmad and Josh set the precedent of being in last place when they joined the league and it looks like Belling is already following in their footsteps
Worth noting who almost paid. Choi spent Sunday afternoon at an 80% chance of being low scorer and escaped; McNamara peaked at 78%, Bhuh at 64%. Tsao was sitting at about a 1% chance all weekend — right up until the Broncos played MNF. As they perpetually did nothing for 4 quarters of football his odds slowly crept their way up to the top 😂. Sal, by contrast, was never really challenged
Betting
Amato and AB both took $10 on Bhuh & Jordan and cashed. AB then took $10 on Tsao & Belling and did not, which nets him out at zero for the week — a fitting result for a man who spent four days at negative half a point. Eleven of you didn't bet at all.
Running season totals. Records are bets won-lost, not team records.
| Bettor | Record | Staked | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Amato | 1-0 | $10 | +$10 |
| Adam Brandon | 1-1 | $20 | even |
| Ahmad | 0-0 | — | — |
| Bhuh | 0-0 | — | — |
| Daniel Nguyen | 0-0 | — | — |
| Derrick Choi | 0-0 | — | — |
| Eric Wang | 0-0 | — | — |
| Hunter | 0-0 | — | — |
| Jon Tsao | 0-0 | — | — |
| Justin Chan | 0-0 | — | — |
| Kerry Chen | 0-0 | — | — |
| Matthew McNamara | 0-0 | — | — |
| Salmaan | 0-0 | — | — |
Stars of the week — the 30-point club
Nine guys cleared 30 this week, which is absurd for an opener.
- Derrick Henry, 36.3 (Hunter) — 24 car, 144 yd, 3 TD, 1 rec 19 yd.
- Kenneth Walker, 34.1 (Irish) — 23 car, 173 yd, 1 TD, 3/6 rec, 18 yd, 1 TD
- D'Andre Swift, 33.4 (me) — 18 car, 124 yd, 3 TD
- Caleb Williams, 33.26 (Choi) — 21/29, 269 yd, 2 TD, 10 car, 65 yd, 2 TD
- Jahmyr Gibbs, 32.6 (Salmaan) — 29 car, 156 yd, 2 TD, 5/5 rec, 30 yd, 1 fumble lost
- Josh Allen, 31.66 (me) — 20/29, 334 yd, 2 TD, 6 car, 23 yd, 2 TD
- Bryce Young, 31.44 (Tsao) — 23/37, 361 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT, 2 car, 1 TD
- Christian Watson, 31.2 (Salmaan) — 6/8 rec, 147 yd, 2 TD
- Ashton Jeanty, 31.2 (Kerry) — 23 car, 102 yd, 6/6 rec, 45 yd, 2 TD. 73% of Vegas' offensive snaps to Mike Washington's 19% — a genuine lead role.
Losers of the week — started, projected, and did nothing
- Kyler Murray, 0.62 (Chan) — 3/5, 18 yd, 1 INT before he died
- Sam Darnold, 0.52 (AB) — 1/2 for 13 yards.
- Ja'Marr Chase, 2.2 (Kerry) — projected 17.0, missed by 14.8. 2/4 for 12 yards. 95% route share. Last year's week 1 was nearly identical usage — 93% route share for 4.6 points.
- Bo Nix, 4.44 (Tsao) — projected 17.0, missed by 12.6. 17/28, 131 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 fumble lost.
- Colston Loveland, 0.00 (Tsao) — projected 11.2, missed by 11.2. Going back to last year there have been 170+ games with a tight end on an 80%+ route share; this is the fifth to score nothing.
- Jaylen Waddle, 0.70 (me) — projected 11.7, missed by 11.0. 1/3 for 2 yards.
- A.J. Brown, 4.10 (Eric) — projected 14.1, missed by 10.0. 3/4 for 26, then IR.
- George Pickens, 4.30 (Ahmad) — projected 13.0, missed by 8.7. 3/6 for 28.
The AI model battle, aka the 2025 championship rematch. It was entertaining but definitely had the makings for 2 guys coming back from the previous season hungover and resting on their laurels. They had the closest matchup in the league, 8.6 points, which included twelve lead changes, but managed to have the lowest points scored. Bhuh leads the series 5-2, but those 2 from Choi come from the playoffs. Including last year's championship. Something tells me Choi's not too mad about this rivalry's status.
Bhuh bottomed out at a 15% win chance after Dak found CeeDee Lamb during Sunday Night Football. Afterwards it was takeoff for Jaxson Dart, 25.6, as Anthropic's keeper threw for 3 touchdowns and rushed for 40 yards. Then last 4th quarter touchdown to Devin Singletary basically sealed the matchup at a 90%.
Choi had the QB1, Caleb Williams 33.26, 18.5 rushing points on 7 carries, and still lost. Things with Justin Jefferson were looking pretty rough after Kyler got injured, but Carson Wentz might be even better. He ended up with 27.2 on a 39% target share. Thought it was pretty funny to see Choi pick up the Titans D after drafting the Texans. Can't knock it though he got a .5 improvement from -2.85 -> -2.3
That's all the good that can be said about his team. J.K. Dobbins and the rest of the Broncos shit the bed. That killed any hope he had of winning the matchup. Maybe he'll regret benching Deebo, 15pts or maybe he'll blame Terry McLaurin who failed to get more than 2.5 points. Pretty alarming to see Scary Terry behind in targets and receptions to Diggs and a rookie
This wasn't quite the exciting battle I was hoping the AI model war to be, but makes sense their employees are throttled after publicly declaring there needs to be a slowdown of AI.
Toilet Bowl rematch, both of last year's bottom feeders with something to prove. Seems like the Hoop Boys didn't get the memo. Despite coming into the year with extra draft capital, they pick up right where they left off last year and earn the lowest score of the week. zeros out of a third and a fifth round pick.
Amato said it best: should've spent more time looking at Mr. J Love. What's the point of drafting Jeremiyah Love in the third if he's going to sit on your bench for 12? Colston Loveland zero receptions on two targets in a 60 pt game. Quite a way to start the year by having zero contribution out of your third and a fifth round pick. It doesn't stop there. Their keeper, Bo Nix threw an interception along with three fumbles which prevented their Courtland Sutton stack from recording a single catch until the fourth. MarShawn Lloyd, 13 carries, 37 yards is the definition of failing the eye test. Genuinely impressive that they had Bryce Young going for 31.44, second-highest of his career, and the Steelers defense putting up 20 and were still lowest score in the league.
Welcome to the league, Belling. It's only week 1 and you've already been put on the scaffold with a pornstar for the rest of town to laugh at you. Hopefully it doesn't take 50 more first dates for him to realize he should stop cosplaying Silverlake hipster and just bring home a nice Jewish girl for Yom Kippur this year
For the record i asked Belling myself that he'd been on 100 first dates, he said way more, closer to 200. That's a primary source. Between my new stat graphs and boots-on-the-ground reporting i'm running a higher standard of journalistic integrity than ESPN.
I thought this was going to be a repeat of two retards fighting from last year but Amato's team came out of nowhere to have a decently impressive day. Double Panthers was a bold draft strategy but Jalen Coker (COKEHEADS STAND UP) and Chuba Hubbard popped off going for 53.5 points on the bench — Coker 31.3, Hubbard 22.2. It looked like a fatal mistake as Tyler Shough looked like an absolute dunce for three quarters — two fumbles, interceptions everywhere — then threw the ball 56 times for 400 yards and three touchdowns to finish QB6 on the week. Twitter nerds were right about him all along. Then Ashton Jeanty put his stamp on the match up and left no hope for the Hoop Boys to win. 23 carries, 102 yards, six catches for 45 and two scores. The Dolphins are dog shit, but fantasy is at its most fun when you get to beat up on gay retards.
Speaking of which, I recently found out Jeremiyah Love has gone on podcasts saying he thinks he's autistic. Nice to see the Hoop Boiz have embraced being gay retards within their team and themselves.
Pretty unfortunate that the Irvine High Classic only gets to meet once this year. It's a young fantasy matchup with Chan leading the series 2-1, but it's got a lifetime of history and animosity behind it. This one was no different and had haymakers being thrown on both sides. I'm sure their cortisol levels were spiking during Sunday Night Football, check out their win probability swings during it:
Chan's odds to win, before and after each of the four plays that moved it 10 points or more:
| Play | Chan before | after |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 00:25 — Isaiah Likely TD, 15 yds (Ahmad) | 72.1% | 43.9% |
| Q3 07:04 — Isaiah Likely TD, 2 yds (Ahmad) | 43.9% | 20.2% |
| Q3 00:41 — Javonte Williams TD, 1 yd (Chan) | 24.1% | 51.9% |
| Q4 05:26 — Javonte Williams TD, 17 yds (Chan) | 72.5% | 99.4% |
Likely dragged Chan from 72% down to 20% across a quarter and a half — that first one, worth 28 points on its own, is the single biggest swing anybody had all week. Then Javonte handed it straight back, 24% to 52% to 99%. Chan's true floor was 15%, he topped out at 99.9%, three lead changes total, final 144.52 – 135.44. Ahmad was better than even money for most of Sunday evening and walked away with nothing.
The Rams fandom and especially the Matthew Stafford conversion campaign is off to a very rough start. A nine point loss makes the 1 point from Harrison Mevis feel extra bad. Saquon got 15 carries for 80 yards, not really the bellcow usage you'd be hoping for. On the other hand, Chris Olave went for 182 yards and 10 catches in a half of football, Jonathan Taylor showed why he was worth a 1st round pick, and Isaiah Likely scored twice to lead all tight ends in points. Likely tried his best to follow Allah's orders and put the Lesbians where they belong, but his efforts to swing the matchup 50 win probability percentage points wasn't enough for the Habibis to win.
In this modern world, Dykes are powerful, not submissive, women who cannot be oppressed by ancient religion. Javonte Elefante, like many a dyke, looks like ass but despite appearances, knows how to get the job done better than most men. 12 carries, 40 yards, five catches for 30, and two touchdowns, but most importantly the dagger through the heart to the Habibis. Early slate for Chan was where he shined, Trevor Lawrence spread four touchdowns around and looks like one of the best quarterback picks in the draft. Amon-Ra pulled in 2 touchdowns, 23.7, with the overtime winner.
Despite losing I think the Habibis have some bright spots to hang their hat on. George Pickens only had 4.3 on three catches, yet Caleb Douglas and Bill were on their bench with 12 points that could have flipped the match up.
Quite exciting to win the matchup after bottoming out at a 15% win probability, but Chan is coming out of this week battered, Kyler Murray got his brain exploded and Chan has no second quarterback on the roster. He's got some real questions he needs to answer going into next week
AB has previously had a 3 year run of winning 5 straight against me. This win by me breaks that and pulls our H2H back to 5-4 in his favor, setting up the stage perfectly for our second matchup of the year. No surprise that winning five straight got to his head enough for him to call himself The LeBron of Fantasy. Nothing brought me more joy this week than seeing the LeBron of fantasy sitting at -0.5 points for the four days after Thursday night football 😂. Think he's better suited to call himself The Bronny of Fantasy after this week.
D'Andre Swift 33.4, three touchdowns, 124 yards, by far the biggest beneficiary of the Bears scoring 60. Josh Allen 31.66 — 334 yards, two through the air, two on the ground making his case he should've gone at least 2nd in the draft. I genuinely don't know how he dropped to fourth but I'm counting my blessings. JSN 23.7 on 8 of 11 targets, roughly two-thirds of Drew Lock's passing yards, and a 40-yard touchdown he made himself. Looks QB-proof.
143 this week is heavily propped up by Evan McPherson going for 20 as the highest-scoring kicker in the league. There were plenty of duds on my team that leave room for concern. Godwin and Gainwell combined for under 10. Jaylen Waddle put up 0.70. I don't know if Sean Payton hates his wife, but only God knows why he would tell her to draft a $100 million cardio decoy.
AB's beginning this year similarly to how he spent last year, filled with injuries. Sam Darnold took a page out of Aaron Rodgers' playbook and used the season opener to get injured as soon as it began. De'Zhaun Stribling dead... Zay Flowers looked like a monster, hit a 54-yard touchdown from Lamar (the biggest swing in our matchup), but pulled a hamstring doing it. The rest of his picks had a slow start too, Rashee Rice and Omarion Hampton would've been huge duds if not for the touchdowns they fell into.
Usually I would feel a little more empathy for someone eating 3 week 1 injuries but AB really wished this on himself. He tried to get a pre-season needle with the most sincere "uh oh!" on Brock Bowers injury and cursed himself. You can only root for injuries if you've sold your soul to the devil like me. For the pure of heart, rooting for injuries only brings karma. Don't try and pretend to be the Grinch. Your mom makes Christmas wreaths during the holidays, you belong in Whoville with Cindy Lou
Quite the start to the season for the Erics after watching their keeper and golden boy, Drake Maye throw a game losing interception. It was a horrid evening to own a Patriot triple stack. 3 interceptions for Maye, a high ankle IR stint for AJB, and drop after drop for guardian cap Doubs. As bad of a start for the season as you could ask for but an equally miraculous bounce back has them in 2nd highest score this week.
Their RB's popped off in the morning slate. Cooper Rush peppers Bijan Robinson 25.8 points through 8/10 receiving, a 53% target share — the highest single-game target share by a running back since at least 2011. David Montgomery went 27.4 with three touchdowns on only a 51% snap rate and 63% of the team's rushes, absolutely fucking Hunter and the Stroud Boys. Dallas Goedert, a 14th-round pick, put up 21.7 and looked like the Eagles WR1. Parker Washington, 16.8 on a 29% target share, double anybody else on the Jaguars solidifying the rumors he's the Jags WR1. Even Brissett 16.48 was a completely serviceable quarterback. That roster looks like it'll manage without AJ Brown.
A solid showing from Hunter, but no surprise they weren't able to pull out a W this week with the Stroud Boy Commander on the bench. C.J. Stroud went 16.46 and outscored both Baker Mayfield (9) and Joe Burrow (13.16). Stroud was pressured on only 21% of his drop-backs, the lowest rate in the league (Daniel Jones the highest at nearly 53%) and had the Nico Collins stack flowing for the majority of the game. Ultimately a pretty crushing day for Hunter to watch his Texans get lit up by Josh Allen in real life and in fantasy by David Montgomery.
The rest of his roster is pretty up and down. Derrick Henry with a vintage, 36.3 performance — 24 carries, 144 yards, three touchdowns, the highest score of anybody in the league, at 32 years old. If anybody should be the Lebron of Fantasy, it should probably be him. Ladd McConkey was looking unleashed too before he got his back blown out on a route over the middle. Hopefully it's nothing serious and after a few days of walking side to side he'll be fixed. Maybe most disappointing performance on his team is, Bhayshul Tuten: 15 carries for 66 in a 34-10 blowout. Would have expected more given the Jags were leading for the entirety of the game.
Not sure why Irish was the target of Hunter's unprompted tirade earlier this week. I think the Erics would make for a far better candidate. After this win they have a 5-2 H2H record over Hunter. Then again bullies always like to pick on easier targets.
Speaking of easy targets, Salmaan's 65 point blowout is the biggest gap in the league this week. This week makes it 6-0 all-time for their matchup and firmly has Salmaan son-ing Irish. Ironically I don't think this will bother Irish much after we learned how submissive he is by his "go hawks," but I think the idea of having a son has Salmaan quivering in his boots.
I thought that WR's were going to be a weak point for him this year, but it looks like it's Sal's best draft value. Christian Watson 31.2 on 6 of 8 for 147 and two scores. Hopefully he stays healthy. DJ Moore 20.0, bigger plays, actually fun to watch now that he has Josh Allen looking for him.
Jahmyr Gibbs 32.6 on 29 carries, and he took every single goal-line snap for Detroit after seeing 44% of them last year. With no backup behind him, i would not be shocked if he outscores Josh Allen this season.
Last place looked like a lock for Irish but Kenneth Walker blew the roof off and went 34.1 on Monday night. 191 yards from scrimmage including a 60-yard touchdown, keeps him from paying the loser tax. Dalton Kincaid at 17.0 is my favorite pick on his roster: healthy, multiple 25-plus-yard grabs, functioning as the WR2 for Buffalo. This year getting Jordan Love at his actual ADP price instead of 2 rounds early makes him feel like a much better pick. No Josh Jacobs means he's clear to air it out. And paying $10 FAAB for Kirk Cousins isn't even that retarded — adjusted for inflation that's five bucks. Chan just paid $32 for Carson Wentz.
Probably my fault for roasting Irish's drafting skills across multiple years that he's turned into a fantasy football pick me, but Chan was right, kinda smart!
Power Rankings, week 1
Blended 70% roster talent / 30% results — week 1 results are one game and can't tell a good team from a lucky one, so talent carries most of the weight and that flips as the season builds.
| # | Team | Rec | All-play | PF | Results | Roster | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salmaan | 1-0 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 193.58 and never trailed. Best roster, best score |
| 2 | Eric Wang | 1-0 | 91% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2nd on results and 2nd on roster — the only team the model likes as much as it likes Sal. |
| 3 | Kerry Chen 🍀 | 1-0 | 55% | 6 | 5 | 3 | Won on the strength of Jeanty. 3rd-best roster, but left 53.5 on the bench doing it. |
| 4 | Justin Chan | 1-0 | 82% | 3 | 3 | 7 | Won a coin flip. 3rd in points, but the 7th-best roster — this is the ceiling, not the floor. |
| 5 | Daniel Nguyen | 1-0 | 73% | 4 | 4 | 6 | Solid all round, propped up by the league's top kicker. Nothing here is repeatable. |
| 6 | Ahmad 💀 | 0-1 | 46% | 7 | 8 | 4 | 0-1 with the 4th-best roster. Lost in a tight matchup. Will look stupid in a month. |
| 7 | Bhuh 🍀 | 1-0 | 18% | 10 | 6 | 9 | 1-0 on an 18% all-play — the luckiest team in the league. 10th in points. |
| 8 | Derrick Choi | 0-1 | 9% | 11 | 11 | 5 | 11th on results, 5th on roster, reigning champ. The other one that'll look stupid in a month. |
| 9 | Matthew McNamara 💀 | 0-1 | 36% | 8 | 9 | 8 | Saved from last by Kenneth Walker on Monday night. Roster is genuinely better than last year. |
| 10 | Hunter 💀 | 0-1 | 64% | 5 | 7 | 12 | 5th in points and 0-1, which is unlucky — but the WORST roster in the league by ROS value. |
| 11 | Adam Brandon | 0-1 | 27% | 9 | 10 | 11 | 0-1, 11th roster, and three players already Out. It gets worse before it gets better. |
| 12 | Jon Tsao | 0-1 | 0% | 12 | 12 | 10 | 0-11 all-play. Lowest score, lowest points, pays the $10. No argument available. |
All-play = record if you played the whole league every week. PF = points-for rank. Results = record, luck-adjusted all-play, points-for, recent form. Roster = value of the best legal lineup on FantasyPros rest-of-season. 🍀 luckier than the all-play says, 💀 unluckier.
Generated from newsletter.md. Scores and stats pulled from Sleeper; win-probability curves reconstructed from NFL play-by-play under this league's scoring; advanced usage notes hand-curated. Corrections to the commissioner, who will ignore them.